Below charts shows the Morgan Stanley Months to 1st rate hike EUR region. Can’t really say that Draghi changed that after the meeting today.
Meanwhile, the initial reaction in the Eur to unchanged post the ECB, has totally been reversed and we are currently seeing the Eur trade at 1.13.
Europe is “tired” and so is the Euro. Citi’s economic surprise index for Europe (white) and the US (blue) is not overly optimistic when we look at Europe.
PMIs in Europe are imploding.
The longer-term negative Euro channel is still in play. Note that the Euro broke below the short-term trend line from November lows. Watch the lows on November 13th carefully should this break down get some traction.
Source: charts by Bloomberg