Markets surged in early trading today, but DM indices have all been giving back most of the gains throughout the day. It is easy to get caught up by the recent euphoria and jump all in long, but before doing that take a look at the slightly bigger picture.
The SPX reached ATH levels today, but the index has actually done very little over past 1.5 years. Deducting the late autumn panic, this index remains in a boring range.
Recall, we traded at the lower part of the range only a few weeks ago. Who knows, maybe this takes out new ATH levels, but chasing it here looks like a very late trade.
NASDAQ is also approach major resistance levels. Note the 200-day average is flat, i.e. there is no real trend in this market. Chasing NASDAQ, SPX or any other developed market index looks late.
Interesting to note is the fact the VIX seems to have found another “natural floor” level and has been bid throughout the session so far today.
The set up here is a bid tricky, vols are not cheap enough to get involved. Outright shorts could be an interesting thought, but we would prefer to wait and see more possible confirmations of a reversal.
Source, charts by Bloomberg