As we are reaching the end of 2018 which has been an interesting year from all various angles let it be from a macro, micro, geopolitical or in any type of perspective. 2018 was a year of first euphoria and then fear. On that basis, we need to start looking out for 2019 and some events that could affect the markets. Below is a brief outline from Nomura of various events happening that could potentially move the markets during Q1 and Q2 and onward.
Ongoing: Muller Investigation
3rd January: New Congress Term Startgs
30th January: FOMC Meeting and Treasury Refunding Announcement
January: Potential 2nd U.S.- Nord Korea Summit
January: State of Union
17th of February: Section 232 Deadline (U.S. government deadline on pervious tariffs put on good from national security perspective)
20th of February: Large SOMA (System Open Market Account – Assets Managed by Federal Reserve)
1st of March: Debt Limit suspension ends
1st of March: 90-Day negotiation widow between U.S. and China Ends
Q1/Q2: Trade negotiations between U.S. and EU/UK/Japan
21st of October: Federal Elections Canada
21st of January: Brexit Deal up for vote again in the U.K.
22-25th of January: World Economic Forum
24th of January: ECB Meeting
Jan-Feb: EDP (Excessive Deficit Procedure) triggered against Italy by the EU
7th of February: Bank of England meeting and potential rate hike?
7th of March: ECB Meeting
21-22 of March: Last EU Council meeting for the U.K.?
29th of March: Brexit Day
31st of March: Ukraine Presidential Election
31st of March: Local election Turkey
10th of April: ECB Meeting
12/14th of April: IMF/World Bank Meetings
April: OPEC Meeting
South Africa: General Elections
23-26th of May: European Parliamentary Elections
6th of June: ECB Meeting
28/29th of June: G20 Summit
October: Draghi (ECB) and Juncker (EC) terms end
End of 2019: ECB market pricing for “lift-off”. Raise depo in September and then all rates in December
January 2020: Jay Carney term at Bank of England ends
January: U.S. Japan FTA talks to happen
23rd of January: Bank of Japan Meeting
February: Thailand general elections
March: National Congress session in China
April: Local elections in Japan
April/May: General elections in India
1st of October: Consumption Tax Hikes
2020: GPIF (Government Pension Invest Fund Japan) portfolio review
