Last week we wrote a note on oil, pointing out the fact oil had become a somewhat “forgotten” topic.
After Trump tweeting today, oil is getting hammered. Black gold turned right on the 100-day average, and we are seeing the worst candle in several weeks develop today.
What is interesting is the fact oil volatility is pretty much the only volatility that is rising today. The OIV index is up 7% as of writing. Last time VIX was calm and oil volatility started moving, equities soon followed. We are not suggesting the same will occur this time, but given the implosion of all volatilities globally, we advise watching oil volatility closely.
So far in February, SPX has been moving higher, while Oil threads water. Don’t forget: oil does matter.
Source, charts by Bloomberg