Having much view on Brexit is practically impossible. The most noteworthy is the total lack of enthusiasm, either way, not for Brexit nor for Theresa May. The GBP has been extremely boring, not moving anywhere. It seems like the algos have been switched off as nobody cares bout the “mess” anymore.
The huge Brexit anti-climax can be seen best in the GBP 1 month at the money volatility, down 55% in 2 weeks trading, adding to the sell off today again. We don´t think we have ever seen such a big implosion of volatilities in a currency. Talk about getting caught the wrong way, but it is usually the inverted version of the below chart.
It is interesting to see that the Brexit fatigue as a theme has spilled over to the UK 5-year CDS as well. Is it justified to see the CDS trade lower just because the GBP is not moving?
Source, charts by Bloomberg